President Jair Bolsonaro guaranteed or financed what he needed to launch a comprehensive program to combat poverty and replace the Bolsa Família, opening the way for an electoral victory within a year. Batizado de Auxilio Brasil, or government plan is a monthly payment of 400 reais for 20 thousand families. Ou seja, a value that doubles or that the Bolsa Família paid last month and that will benefit more six thousand of families than the 14 thousand that received the previous subsidy. To get the money, the Executive had to approve a constitutional reform that allows temporary flexibility of the cost of spending, and I managed to do it just by the goal.
The financing guarantee process at a time when Brazilian public accounts are seriously affected by the pandemic has been extremely difficult for the Government. O Palácio do Planalto has to make a legislative watermark to get you funds. With the legislative changes approved in recent days to the hatred of two investors, the Government will have more than 65 billion reais, which it intends to attribute to Aid Brazil. With these resources, they would have an orçamento to pay aid for the entire year of 2022, or seja, before the presidential and legislative elections in October.
Contudo, forams approved just the stretches of the PEC dos Precatórios call on the quais senators and deputies agree. It remains to release another 43 billion reais, or that Câmara must decide in the next terça-feira. The confusing process led some senators, like Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), to accuse the government of breaking agreements —the main point of disagreement is about the lack of guarantee that the released instrument will be used exclusively for social issues. “Or what is intended is not just resources to pay for Auxílio Brasil. Let’s be frank. Or that são bilhões are intended for a random expense not in the electoral year, for the practice of populism. This is what is left, at the point of presenting ourselves here as a show of creativity”, criticized Senator Alvaro Dias (Podemos-PR).
Making spending more flexible means breaking with the austerity policy agreed in 2017, but the launch of Aid Brazil has been a great political priority for Bolsonaro for many months. The ultra-directist knows that his payment can help him gain popularity among the poorest, a public that remains faithful to the PT of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He also gave his constant trips to the Northeast, Lula’s homeland and to the poorest Brazil, to inaugurate all kinds of works.
Bolsonaro aspires to relaunch the political success of the generous emergency aid program approved in the first months of the pandemic, which managed to boost his popularity among the poor, an effect that disappeared with the increase in inflation and unemployment.
Burying or renaming the Bolsa Família —one of the great eleitorais brands of the PT— was one of Bolsonaro’s obsessions since he came into power. Little did it matter as a political and academic consensus that considered one of the two most effective and cheapest anti-poverty programs in the world. Raised in 2003, he managed to pull thousands of people out of extreme poverty with a small family.
The settled military officer has just joined a worn-out political party, not the first step to run for reelection, but in recent months, as the economic crisis worsens, his popularity has been falling systematically, as Lula grows, or not maintained topo das inquiries of intention to vote.
The recent entry into the dispute of ex-judge Sergio Moro is more than a step in the way of Bolsonaro for reelection. The investigations show that the shipment of the great symbol of Operation Lava Jato in the dispute prejudicial to the president, and positions the ex-judge and ex-minister of the Government Bolsonaro in third place between the extreme right and Lula.
Together with the Aid Brazil program, a gesture for the most needy, Bolsonaro managed to fulfill his great promise to the evangelicals, with the nomination of a lawyer and pastor of the Presbyterian Church as the new minister of the Federal Supreme Court. As he himself recalled, if he is reelected, he will be able to appoint more than two magistrates among the 11 of his court.